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What people were betting on, Thursday, November 12, 2026
The busiest prediction markets on Polymarket that day, leaving out single games and short crypto price bets. Each page shows the odds, how they moved and, where the same market is on Kalshi, both prices side by side.
| Market | Lead, 24h |
|---|---|
| Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by...? Leading on Polymarket: December 31, 2026, >99% | +84 pts |
| Next French Presidential Election Leading on Polymarket: Marine Le Pen, 48% | +2 pts |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 Leading on Polymarket: Jon Ossoff, 17% | – |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Leading on Polymarket: March 31, 59% | −1 pt |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 Leading on Polymarket: Jon Ossoff, 26% | – |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Leading on Polymarket: November 13, >99% | +3 pts |
| Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...? Leading on Polymarket: December 31, 2027, 50% | −5 pts |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket traders give this a 8% chance | −1 pt |
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 Leading on Polymarket: J.D. Vance, 32% | −2 pts |
| Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by...? Leading on Polymarket: December 31, 30% | −5 pts |
| Taipei Mayor Election Winner Leading on Polymarket: Chiang Wan-an, 66% | – |
| Next Prime Minister of Spain? Leading on Polymarket: Alberto Núñez Feijóo, 86% | +3 pts |
| Jensen Huang divorce by...? Leading on Polymarket: March 31, 2027, 36% | −6 pts |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) Leading on Polymarket: December 31, 83% | +5 pts |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by ___? Leading on Polymarket: December 31, 2027, >99% | +1 pt |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Polymarket traders give this a 2% chance | +1 pt |
| Next CEO of NVIDIA? Leading on Polymarket: Ian Buck, 25% | −13 pts |
See the big bets as they land. ArbTrader's Whale Tracker shows every large bet on Kalshi and Polymarket the moment it's placed, and the AI Analyst researches any market in about a minute.
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Earlier days: 11-11 · 11-10 · 11-09 · 11-08 · 11-07 · 11-06 · 11-05 · 11-04 · 11-03 · 11-02 · 11-01
Odds are the market's last traded price shown as a chance; they change all the time. Not a prediction and not financial advice. Source: Polymarket. Game odds · Election odds