2026 midterms · After the election

Kalshi vs Polymarket election odds 2026

Who the two biggest prediction markets think will win the Senate, the House and every Senate race, side by side. Live prices, updated 2 minutes ago.

Senate control

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House control

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Every Senate race

Closest races first. K = Kalshi, P = Polymarket: the price to buy that side, which works as the market's odds (66% = 66¢ for a $1 payout). The small number is how many points higher Polymarket is.

Race	Democrat	Republican
Alaska Mary Peltola (D) vs Sen. Dan Sullivan (R)	K 100% P 100%	K 1% P 0%

Uncalled races, recounts and certification still move both sites. They don't always move together. ArbTrader watches every race both sites list and pings you when buying both sides costs less than the $1 they pay, after fees.
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Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different odds?

They're separate exchanges with different traders, fees and rules. Polymarket is crypto-based and global; Kalshi is a US-regulated exchange that trades in dollars. Money can't flow freely between them, so the same race can sit a few points apart for days.

They don't settle the same way

Kalshi's race markets pay on which party's candidate is sworn in (early 2027) and its control markets on which party wins control; Polymarket's pay on the projected winner and settle much sooner. A recount, a court fight, a party switch or an independent caucusing with a party can make the two settle differently, and money on Kalshi stays tied up until it settles. That's why a gap here isn't free money. Read the risks before trading.

Which is more accurate?

Neither is right by default. Both are prices set by people betting real money, and when they disagree, at least one is off. Comparing them shows where traders disagree, which is often where the news is.

Writing about the midterms? Put these odds on your page with our free live widget. Get the embed code → For where the two sites disagree over time, with a chart, see the election data page →

See every market we track on both sites at Kalshi vs Polymarket odds. Best ask only, before fees. Prices can change at any moment. Not financial advice. ArbTrader isn't affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket.